The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy     

Chris Bataille  Henri Waisman  Michel Colombier  Laura Segafredo  Jim Williams  Frank Jotzo 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S7-S26

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.  相似文献   

Did adaptation strategies work? High fatalities from tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and future vulnerability under global warming     

S. Niggol Seo  Laura A. Bakkensen 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):1341-1355

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Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise     

Alexander Simms  Laura C. Reynolds  Michael Bentz  Angela Roman  Thomas Rockwell  Robert Peters 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(6):1571-1581

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.  相似文献   

Cloud Forest Conservation in the Central Highlands of Guatemala Hinges on Soil Conservation and Intensifying Food Production     

Ian Pope  Jon Harbor  Laura Zanotti  Guofan Shao  Dawn Bowen  Gary R. Burniske 《The Professional geographer》2016,68(1):1-13

Soil erosion threatens long-term soil fertility and food production in Q’eqchi’ communities native to the Sierra Yalijux and Sierra Sacranix mountain ranges in the central highlands of Guatemala. Environmental factors such as steep topography, erodible soils, and intense precipitation events, combined with land subdivision and reduced fallow periods as a consequence of population growth, contribute to severe erosion and strain soil resources. The preservation of the region's cloud forests hinges on enhancing production of staple crops through agricultural intensification while maintaining soil fertility through implementation of soil conservation measures.  相似文献   

Structural analysis of compactive deformation in the incoming sedimentary section of the Hikurangi Subduction Margin, New Zealand:results from IODP 375 expedition     

Maomao Wang  Philip Barnes  Julia Morgan  Rebecca E Bell  Ake Fagereng  Heather M Savage  Demian M Saffer  Laura M Wallace  Katerina E Petronotis  Shipboard Scientists 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(Z1):157-157

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Anomalous Alpine fans: from the genesis to the present hazard     

E. De Finis  P. Gattinoni  L. Marchi  L. Scesi 《Landslides》2018,15(4):683-694

The present paper aims at characterising Alpine anomalous basin-fan systems, in order to develop a method for hazard assessment for such fans. The review of previous studies revealed that anomalous basin-fan systems are often associated with deep-seated slope failure and present-day hazard is associated to debris flow occurrence. Taking into account these peculiarities, a modelling approach to assess the present day hazard in anomalous fans has been developed and applied to the Sernio fan (Valtellina, northern Italy). Debris flow inundation areas have been simulated by means of a numerical model (RApid Mass MovementS (RAMMS) debris flow), which includes a routine for the sediment entrainment. The range of the model parameters was defined based on previous studies, enabling a sensitivity analysis on the debris flow runout, as well as the flow height and velocity. Numerical results point out the paramount importance of entrainment phenomena on debris flow dynamic in anomalous systems, especially with reference to the bulking factor and debris yield rate that reach very high values, typical of basins with unlimited solid supply.  相似文献   

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon     

Jonathan C. Allan  George R. Priest  Yinglong J. Zhang  Laura L. Gabel 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(1):21-52

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.  相似文献   

Investigating the drivers of the unprecedented Chernobyl Power Plant Wildfire in April 2020 and its effects on 137Cs dispersal     

Newman-Thacker  Fiona  Turnbull  Laura 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(2):1877-1899

Natural Hazards - Driving after natural disasters entails a substantial amount of stress; therefore, the number of motor vehicle crashes may increase. However, few studies have examined this issue....  相似文献   

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques     

Gazzola  Laura  Ferronato  Massimiliano  Frigo  Matteo  Janna  Carlo  Teatini  Pietro  Zoccarato  Claudia  Antonelli  Massimo  Corradi  Anna  Dacome  Maria Carolina  Mantica  Stefano 《Computational Geosciences》2021,25(5):1731-1750

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...  相似文献   

Age and origin of groundwater resources in the Ararat Valley,Armenia: a baseline study applying hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers     

Schubert  Michael  Michelsen  Nils  Schmidt  Axel  Eichenauer  Laura  Knoeller  Kay  Arakelyan  Alexander  Harutyunyan  Lilith  Schüth  Christoph 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(7):2517-2527

Within the Ararat Valley (Armenia), a continuously growing water demand (for irrigation and fish farming) and a simultaneous decline in groundwater recharge (due to climate change) result in increasing stress on the local groundwater resources. This detrimental development is reflected by groundwater-level drops and an associated reduction of the area with artesian conditions in the valley centre. This situation calls for increasing efforts aimed at more sustainable water resources management. The aim of this baseline study was the collection of data that allows for study on the origin and age distribution of the Ararat Valley groundwater based on environmental tracers, namely stable (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and radioactive (³⁵S, ³H) isotopes, as well as physical-chemical indicators. The results show that the Ararat Valley receives modern recharge, despite its (semi-)arid climate. While subannual groundwater residence times could be disproved (³⁵S), the detected ³H pattern suggests groundwater ages of several decades, with the oldest waters being recharged around 60 years ago. The differing groundwater ages are reflected by varying scatter of stable isotope and hydrochemical signatures. The presence of young groundwater (i.e., younger that the 1970s), some containing nitrate, indicates groundwater vulnerability and underscores the importance of increased efforts to achieve sustainable management of this natural resource. Since stable isotope signatures indicate the recharge areas to be located in the mountains surrounding the valley, these efforts must not be limited to the central part of the valley where most of the abstraction wells are located.

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